tmoore

In the first half, we discuss Liberation Day, the violent reaction of, initially, the stock market and, subsequently, the bond market. In terms of the bond market, we look at the frantic trading from last week that ultimately forced the administration to announce a 90-day pause on most tariffs. Who holds U.S. debt? The answer might surprise you: Total debt - $34 trillion Domestic holders - $26 trillion Japan - $1.1 trillion China - $820 billion (though may be understated as offshore entities, i.e., other countries, are likely being used as well) Other countries - $5.3 trillion In the second half, we discuss the volatile reaction of equities to headlines. Post-Liberation Day, over a 10% decline in two days. The third largest daily gain ever for the S&P 500 on April 9th (when the 90-day pause was announced).

In the first half, we discuss the imminent arrival of “Liberation Day”, and why uncertainty over tariffs is causing consternation to consumer, business, and investor confidence. We look at the most recent inflation data from the government and examine the widely divergent inflation expectations based on political affiliation. We also tie this to the likelihood of further rate cuts and the necessity to drive rates lower as sizable government debt is due to be refinanced in 2025.

In the first half, Will and Adam discuss the rapid deterioration in consumer sentiment and how it is cutting across both economic and political divides, albeit to differing degrees. Some sentiment indicators, especially concerns over job loss, are at levels normally seen during a recession, in part due to the uncertainty over tariffs with large trading partners like Canada. Another concern is spending cuts. We look past the headlines to see that cuts have not yet taken hold, though with 85% of job growth in 2024 attributable to government spending, we could be in for a volatile transition period as a result of the “detox” the administration is seeking.

In the first half, we discuss the sharp decline in consumer confidence and spike in inflation expectations, both of which represent challenges to continued equity market strength. We also look at how the bond market (and the Federal Reserve) are responding, and how the continued on again/off again/on again tariff headlines are causing consternation to consumers and investors

With tariffs in the news, we sift through the torrent of headlines coming from both sides of the border and beyond. In the first half, we look at the breaking news on tariffs, with an 11th hour agreement with Mexico giving a pause to the proposed 25% duty on imports. We also look at why Canada may be more reticent to strike a deal, and what the bigger objectives may be. Is it all about oil and inflation, or are we looking at a 21st century version of the Monroe Doctrine aimed at China? We also break down how the Fed is assessing the situation.

After a holiday hiatus, we welcome 2025 with a look at what worked in 2024 and what that may mean for this year. One thing that did not work: forecasts. The Fed cut rates fewer times than predicted, and we discuss the recent pivot toward a more hawkish tone, which is part of the reason for the increase in yields on longer bonds. Those higher yields are stressing consumers and businesses, not to mention grinding mortgage activity to a halt. We look at the implications of higher rates and compare some of the small business stress we are seeing in our community versus the strong jobs data being reported, which is influencing the Fed’s outlook for rate cuts.

We discuss the recent mania around levered ETFs and the market mechanics that make these so volatile. We also take our first look at investor response to Trump’s win and what we think some of the over (and under) reactions have been so far, and what the true implications of changes in fiscal and regulatory policy may mean.