The French Enlightenment philosopher, writer, historian Voltaire once wrote: “The Holy Roman Empire was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire.” Adapting one of history’s pithier jibes to the realm of financial advice, we think the so-called passive index is most often neither passive nor an index, and it is most certainly not investing. Investors should take heed.
We parse Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and assess the odds (and timing) of further rate hikes versus a pivot. We also examine the impact on the global economy of China’s weakening property market. We conclude with a look at the recent weakness in U.S. consumer stocks and debate whether expectations for megacap tech earnings are too high in the wake of this week’s market reaction to everyone’s favorite AI stock.
We return from hiatus with a recap of the happenings in emerging markets, including Chinese property problems and Argentinian elections. We juxtapose the echo boom in tech names with the so-called dot com darlings, and look at how those high-flying companies fared in terms of sales growth (outstanding) and investment returns (dreadful). We close with the odds of and implications for a pivot by the Fed.
August Update - Key Takeaways • Returns for equities continue to be dreamy in 2023. • While GDP growth remains resilient, other factors point toward a dose of reality. • While investors remain transfixed by the attraction of stereotypical growth at any price, we look for opportunities elsewhere.
Key Takeaways • Seven (7) stocks, fueled by AI mania, account for all the market’s return in 2023. • Employment and economic growth remain resilient, but so does inflation. • With everyone piled onto the same side of the ship, we look for opportunities elsewhere.
We welcome special guest Kalee Kreider, president of Ridgely Walsh and former communications director for Vice President Al Gore. She offers a unique perspective on the recent debt ceiling resolution, as well as the broader implications of “Bidenomics”. She, Will, and Adam discuss the implications of fiscal policy on the Fed, inflation, and the political landscape for 2024. We close with a conversation on the emerging power of the executive branch, and its supporting bureaucracy, in the wake of a dysfunctional legislative branch, and the role a changing Supreme Court may have. It’s like eight grade civics, only entertaining.
On today's Drill Down, Vince Molinari discusses the current appeal of ETFs with Adam Eagleston, Chief Investment Officer of Formidable Asset Management LLC. They discuss the benefits of growing ETF portfolios and Adam's role in assisting investors in achieving long-term objectives.
We discuss the continuing game of chicken being played over the debt ceiling, and why any ultimate resolution to increase the government’s borrowing ability is a negative for bond yields and equities. Also, you cannot have a podcast in 2023 without talking about AI, and we explore its impact on equity market returns so far this year (positive) as well the murkier longer-term impact on things like inflation and unemployment.
Key Takeaways • The second largest bank failure in U.S. history was not enough to take stock indexes lower in April. • A smaller and smaller cohort of megacap stocks continues to account for almost all of the market’s returns. • Current expectations for the paths of earnings and interest rates are almost certainly mutually exclusive yet serve as the foundation on which index investors are relying.
Technology investors keep dancing as the NASDAQ enters a bull market. We compare the performance of the largest names in the index versus the rest and evaluate the reasons why the performance of the average stock has been so lackluster. We also delve into the seemingly irreconcilable difference between the outlook for earnings and interest rates, as well as the ongoing fallout higher rates have caused for the banking industry. We close with our opinion on the market’s relative upside versus downside based on the positioning of both retail investors and institutional quant funds.
