Will and Adam delve into the return of meme-stock mania and address listener feedback vis-à-vis valuations and geese. They also discuss the circular logic of inflation versus expectations, how the market interprets this, and how the real impact of inflation is often mismeasured, using candy bar sizes. No free samples of a candy line-up will be provided.
Will and Adam explore human overconfidence, be it in fighting an animal, like a goose, or with regard to investing. We spend some time on the Indian variant, inflation expectations, and the rhyming nature of today’s speculative activities with prior episodes of mania.
Will and Adam review the market’s reaction to further fiscal stimulus, lack thereof to proposed tax changes, and compare the Fed’s largesse with the printer to our favorite confetti-throwing comedian. Obligatory discussions of lumber price inflation and employee scarcity also ensue, as does a more somber discussion...
Will and Adam look right in the old lumber yard to discuss inflation and how government stimulus is affecting both sides of the inflation equation, especially as it relates to crowding out in the labor market. We also explore interest rates, the rotation back to large cap despite enthusiasm over re-opening and robust...
Will and Adam explore the rebellion in stock markets, including the recent carnage prompted by margin calls on a highly levered family office. The two also discuss the red-hot housing market, transitory vs. lasting inflation, the bond market’s appetite for junk, the surprising strength of the dollar and its effect on Burl Ives’ favorite commodities.
Will and Adam delve into grammar and how adding misused words, e.g., supposably, to the dictionary normalizes stupidity and is analogous to the market rewarding investors in meme stocks. We connect the dots on the disconnect between the Fed’s transitory view of inflation versus what the market is anticipating, look at the overlooked impact of the variant in Europe, and discuss other risks the market is currently ignoring in its desire to mitigate FOMO.
Will and Adam welcome Jennie Ripps, co-founder and CEO of Owl’s Brew, an emerging leader in the rapidly growing hard tea category. The three talk about the history of the company, its pivot to boozy tea, the challenges and opportunities of running a business during a pandemic, and why ingredients matter if you want to drink wise. They put the latter to the test with an impromptu taste comparison, and conclude with an analysis of the relative perceived sagacity of spectacles versus monocles.
While Will and Adam may, a lot of people have been misusing the term lately. We discuss how all stocks are equal, though some are more equal than others, where we see (and do not see) inflation, and what that means for equities, especially small caps, and bonds. We close with some perspective on what has been driving the outperformance in certain frothy areas of the market, why it may continue, and what risks are being overlooked.
Like the Electric Light Orchestra, Will and Adam have no answer for what is happening right now, but a lot of questions. They cover similarities and differences between now and the late 1990s, discuss valuation for various parts of the market, where they see relatively unattractive risk versus reward, and delve into specifics on a few names in the news.
(November, 24, 2020) Will Brown and Adam Eagleston in the same room…drinking while recording a podcast. What could possibly go wrong? Apparently, everything. Listen to the two echo one another’s comments (literally) on election fallout and the widening chasm between economic reality and valuations in certain parts of the market. Will and Adam experienced technical difficulties in the recording of this podcast—we apologize for the sound quality.
