With tariffs in the news, we sift through the torrent of headlines coming from both sides of the border and beyond. In the first half, we look at the breaking news on tariffs, with an 11th hour agreement with Mexico giving a pause to the proposed 25% duty on imports. We also look at why Canada may be more reticent to strike a deal, and what the bigger objectives may be. Is it all about oil and inflation, or are we looking at a 21st century version of the Monroe Doctrine aimed at China? We also break down how the Fed is assessing the situation.

After a holiday hiatus, we welcome 2025 with a look at what worked in 2024 and what that may mean for this year. One thing that did not work: forecasts. The Fed cut rates fewer times than predicted, and we discuss the recent pivot toward a more hawkish tone, which is part of the reason for the increase in yields on longer bonds. Those higher yields are stressing consumers and businesses, not to mention grinding mortgage activity to a halt. We look at the implications of higher rates and compare some of the small business stress we are seeing in our community versus the strong jobs data being reported, which is influencing the Fed’s outlook for rate cuts.

We discuss the recent mania around levered ETFs and the market mechanics that make these so volatile. We also take our first look at investor response to Trump’s win and what we think some of the over (and under) reactions have been so far, and what the true implications of changes in fiscal and regulatory policy may mean.

We discuss the recent mania around levered ETFs and the market mechanics that make these so volatile. We also take our first look at investor response to Trump’s win and what we think some of the over (and under) reactions have been so far, and what the true implications of changes in fiscal and regulatory policy may mean.

This week, Will and Adam discuss how markets typically respond to the election cycle, and the importance of staying committed to the long-term view when it comes to investing. We also do a deep, some may say submarine, dive on the phenomenon causing some of the extreme weather we are seeing, and compare this type of explosion and its effects to how the explosion of post-Covid stimulus has affected inflation, stocks, and bonds.

We recap the historically strong year-to-date performance of equities and compare Q3 versus the first half of the year. We also delve into the potential market implications of the upcoming presidential elections as well as the ongoing (and escalating) conflict in the Middle East.